Why do oil prices remain unpredictable?
The recent rise in the oil price is not an isolated market fluctuation. Energy has once again become a strategic instrument of power, making price volatility a permanent feature of the market rather than temporary noise. There are four structural causes:
- Persistent tensions in key production regions create risk premiums on the world market.
- The energy policies of major power blocs diverge ever further, making the market less predictable.
- Global trade routes are being reshuffled, creating friction in existing supply chains.
- Europe remains structurally dependent on energy imports and thus sensitive to external shocks.
A large-scale shortage is unlikely: supply chains are diversified and strategic reserves exist. But periods of limited availability, price spikes and regional differences cannot be ruled out. Because oil is traded globally, local disruptions feed directly into European prices.
Why are fleets extra sensitive to fuel prices?
Fleets are structurally more sensitive to fuel prices than most other cost items. The core is a mismatch: costs arise spread over hundreds of refuelling stops, while steering is centralised and locked into multi-year contracts. Four characteristics reinforce this:
- Many organisations' revenue depends directly on mobility; driving less is rarely an option.
- Taxes and pump prices differ per country, making international fleets extra complex.
- Lease contracts and car policies run for years, while fuel prices move weekly.
- Consumption is decentralised: drivers refuel themselves, with limited central control.
The consequences are already visible: a rising total cost of ownership, budgets that need repeated adjustment, more questions from finance and procurement, pressure on car policies and drivers adjusting their behaviour on their own initiative. Fleet management thereby shifts from an operational theme to a boardroom topic.
Which four factors determine fuel costs?
Fuel costs are determined by four interrelated factors. Only the first lies entirely beyond the organisation's influence:
- Price per litre: external market volatility. Cannot be steered, but can be monitored and modelled in scenarios.
- Drivetrain efficiency: the engine type and energy efficiency of the chosen vehicles. This factor is fixed at the moment of ordering.
- Consumption level: usage intensity and the number of kilometres, in other words how much and which trips are driven.
- Driving behaviour: the efficiency and habits of the individual driver.
Which levers do you have to control fuel costs?
Five levers take organisations from reacting to steering:
- Optimise policy: recalibrate vehicle segments, redesign eligibility rules in the car policy, differentiate policy per country and choose the mix of fuel, hybrid and electric strategically.
- Improve driving behaviour: eco-driving programmes, incentives linked to efficiency, driver feedback and checks on fuel card use.
- Operational discipline: renegotiate contracts with leasing companies and fuel suppliers, standardise reporting, benchmark countries against each other and tighten governance.
- Electrification strategy: identify usage profiles suitable for electric, plan charging infrastructure and calculate on total costs rather than purchase price. A premature or poorly targeted switch actually costs money.
- Data-driven steering: model price sensitivity scenarios, analyse down to driver level and link to financial planning, so the highest-impact measures rise to the top.
Why is price volatility also an opportunity?
Periods of volatility accelerate structural change. Inefficiencies that remained invisible for years suddenly become financially visible, board attention for the fleet increases and improvement initiatives gain urgency and support.
That creates a rare window to re-found the fleet strategy, with financial risk management, sustainability goals, employee mobility and data-driven steering in one coherent whole. Such a recalibration requires cooperation between fleet management, HR, finance, procurement and sustainability. Which is exactly why it rarely gets off the ground without a clear trigger.
Why is execution harder than it looks?
The measures are clear on paper. The difference is made in execution, and that is where most organisations get stuck. Five pitfalls:
- Without solid base data and segmentation, organisations choose generic measures with limited effect.
- What works in one country does not work, or is not allowed, in another; scaling up is therefore complex and slow.
- Internal resistance is underestimated: fleet policy touches employment conditions and diverging interests.
- Returns depend on the quality of execution; fragmented implementation yields marginal gains at best.
- It requires a structured methodology, certainly in international organisations where the fleet is not the core business. Many organisations bring in external expertise for this.
How does Molthoff Fleetmanagement help with fuel costs?
With the QuickScan we reveal where fuel and fleet costs are leaking away and which measures deliver the most. Fleet Monitor then continuously safeguards that reporting, rates and behaviour stay on course. For more depth, including international best practices, we are happy to send you the full fleetcompetence whitepaper.
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Fuel price and availability